by

By Eban Goodstein.

Arctic sea ice extent averaged over Januray 2011 its lowest recorded levels since satellite records
began in 1979. It was 19,300 square miles below the record low of 5.25
million square miles, set in 2006, and 490,000 square miles below the
1979 to 2000 average.

Climate change, the crisis many hoped we could ignore for decades, is
here. Ice and snow that covered the vast frozen northland for 800,000
years is disappearing rapidly. As countless square miles of the Arctic
turn from reflective white to heat-absorbing dark, the result is an
acceleration of global warming. And this is not just a problem for polar
bears. The Arctic acts as the air conditioner for the entire planet. And it is starting to break down.

A coauthor and I estimated the economic impacts of this breakdown [PDF]. What is the price of a melting Arctic? Trillions of dollars in global economic damages.

The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet. As a
result, every summer, more and more Arctic Sea ice is lost. As soon as
the 2030’s, according to some recent estimates, the ice that until
recently blanketed the summer Arctic Ocean will be completely replaced
with blue-black waters. Further south, the Arctic winter is rapidly
getting shorter, and white snow is being replaced by dark tundra.

In addition to this “albedo change,” there is another critical
feedback from Arctic melting in the climate system. As the snow
disappears, the underlying frozen tundra, or permafrost, is melting too.
This is releasing carbon trapped in the soils, mostly in the form of
methane gas, a powerful global warming pollutant.

The findings from our study are alarming. Compared to its pre-industrial state, every year, the
melting Arctic is already heating the planet at a rate equal to 42 percent of
U.S. global warming pollution—comparable to the emissions from 500
coal-fired power plants. By the end of the century, the melting Arctic
may itself become a bigger source of global warming then the biggest
economies in the world.

Economists have begun to calculate the costs that global warming is
starting to cause—through rising sea levels, heat waves, droughts,
impacts on food production—costs that will rise dramatically as the
planet heats up. Warming caused today will contribute to damages for
decades to come. Using government figures from the U.S. and U.K. for the
costs of additional global warming, our study provides a preliminary
estimate of the costs of a melting Arctic.

Costs caused by the additional warming, this year alone, are in the
range of $61-$371 billion. By 2050, at the low end, we calculate the
damages from the melting Arctic will be $2.5 trillion. The analysis
projects likely damages in the tens of trillions by the end of the
century.

This is yet another sobering warning of the high costs of unchecked
climate change-costs that will be borne by homeowners, businesses,
farmers, and cities and towns. It is also a reminder that half-measures
on global warming will do little good. Without action to slow the
warming soon, the Arctic air conditioner may well break down completely,
and overwhelm any half-hearted attempts to turn down the heat on an
overheating planet.

Sheila Watt-Cloutier, an Inuit leader and Nobel Peace Prize nominee
said of our study: “This is more evidence of how all things connect. We
know well how global warming is causing the sea ice and snow to melt,
jeopardizing our way of life. Now, we can see how the melting Arctic is
imposing similar costs on people across the planet.” Check out Reuters coverage of the study here.