By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist

Jun 29, 2011; 7:00 AM ET

Tropical Storm Arlene, which is spinning over the southwest Gulf of Mexico, became the first tropical system of the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tuesday night.

As we have been saying here at AccuWeather.com, this feature is not destined to become a powerhouse in terms of wind. Instead, flash flooding will be the biggest threat.

According to Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, “The system has and will continue to struggle with wind shear, which will limit the intensity of the feature.”

However, conditions are favorable for slow strengthening. The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center has the latest details on current position, strength and movement and what is expected through landfall Thursday.

The storm will continue to produce complexes of gusty thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche and the nearby shoreline into the end of the week.

The real concern is the potential for heavy rainfall, flash flooding, washouts and mudslides in Tamaulipas and then Nuevo Leon in Mexico.

Some downpours will reach into South Texas with the potential for flash and urban flooding, but also the hope of beneficial rainfall.

This will not be another Ike for the western Gulf of Mexico and far from it. The system will not be strong enough or over water long enough to kick up the kind of seas that would damage energy platforms or lead to major disruptions to supply.