No, the 2011 hurricane season isn’t fashionably late to the party; it’s right on time.

“The most active part of the season is yet to come, and all indications are that August and September should be very busy,” Tropical Weather and Hurricane Expert Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski said.

Anticipation and even impatience tend to get in the way of the people’s perception of the hurricane season.

While hurricane season lasts from June to November, “typically more than half of all named storms occur during August and September,” Kottlowski said.

The AccuWeather Hurricane Forecast Team predicts 15 named storms during 2011, eight of which will be hurricanes and four will be major hurricanes.

These numbers are still above the long-term averages of 10 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

“While this forecast is also portraying a less active year than last year overall, we still feel the impact on the United States will be greater this year compared to last year,” Kottlowski said.

That impact being more landfalls or potentially damaging conditions by near misses. During 2010, only Bonnie made one direct landfall in the U.S. Alex plowed into Mexico, bringing locally heavy rain to southern Texas. Earl passed just to the east of Cape Hatteras, N.C., bringing modest wind and rain. Hermine made landfall in Mexico first before rolling into Texas with heavy rain and thunderstorms. Nicole cruised the waters of the Florida Straits with minimal impact on the U.S.

With Bret, we have reached number two on the named storm list. Since 2011 is forecast to be similar to the 2008 season, because of weather trends, we are on track with that season so far.

Kottlowski points out that warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures and lower-than-average barometric pressure over the Atlantic Basin support an above-average tropical cyclone season for the region.

Kottlowski also points out that wind shear and the presence of dry air is higher than typical years and could work against the favorable factors.

While a big area of high pressure is still in the way of strong development of tropical features, Kottlowski feels that this particular feature will have less influence by August.