Friday, March 23, 2012

With Emily Gone, Tropics Quiet… For Now

AccuWeather.com Headlines Weather Blog - Sunday, August 7, 2011, 17:21
 

This enhanced infrared satellite image shows relative quiet across the Atlantic for August, with a cold front over the open waters and a tropical wave emerging off western Africa.

Bill Deger

By Bill Deger, Meteorologist
Aug 8, 2011; 3:21 AM ET

“The concern for further development of tropical waves… will continue to elevate over the coming weeks”

Following the degeneration of Emily on Sunday, the tropical Atlantic is likely to remain quiet for the next few days.

However, as we begin to head into what is typically the most active period of the hurricane season, the relative tranquility is not likely to last.

The most recent named storm, Emily, dissipated on Sunday afternoon just 24 hours after reforming north of the Bahamas. Its remains, nothing more than a few showers, continues to quickly move away from the U.S. and out to sea.

Outside of a frontal boundary pushing east between Bermuda and the Azores, the overall tropical basin, including the central Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, is remarkably quiet.

The only feature of relative interest at this time is a tropical wave pushing west off the African continent. AccuWeather.com meteorologists typically begin to keep a closer eye on this part of the Atlantic around this time of year, given that conditions are often more favorable for development.

Another typical hotbed for development is the Caribbean Sea, where AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity is keeping an eye out for development.

Margusity is concerned that the next named storm, Franklin, could form over the western Caribbean later in the week.

The concern for further development of tropical waves and thunderstorm complexes will continue to elevate over the coming weeks, as the hurricane season approaches its peak in early to mid-September.

Historically, the sharpest increase in tropical storm and hurricane formation occurs in the Atlantic between Aug. 20 and Sept. 11.

Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) increased their outlook for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season to 14 to 19 named storms, including 7 to 10 hurricanes.

According to Dr. Gerry Bell, “The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October.”

The AccuWeather.com forecast, issued in the spring, lines up similarly to the one released by NOAA. It can be read in its entirety here.

Read the full article on AccuWeather.com Headlines Weather Blog




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