230900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 39.4E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM NORTHEAST OF MAPUTO, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TC 08S CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE WITH A CLOUD FILLED EYE AND INCREASING SYMMETRY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AFRICAN CONTINENT. A 230230Z SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS THE INNER CORE HAS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION EXTENDING EASTWARD TO NEAR THE COAST OF MADAGASCAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 08S HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION WITH MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS AND EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ARE BETWEEN 28 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE SSMI IMAGE AND FIXES ON THE INFRARED EYE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON PGTW AND FMEE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO INITIALLY TRACK SOUTHWARD, THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER TAU 48 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH BECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. DUE TO THE COMPLEX AND COMPETING STEERING MECHANISMS, TC 08S IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE LATEST NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON THE TRACK SOLUTION.  UKMO AND ECMWF INDICATE A SLOW CYCLONICALLY CURVED TRACK WITH POSSIBLE RECURVATURE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, WHILE NOGAPS, GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A FASTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT QUICKLY RECURVES THE STORM INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. FINALLY THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH GFS UNREALISTICALLY TURNS THE STORM MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS MOZAMBIQUE IN THE EARLY TAUS, IT IS MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTIONS OVERALL. THE MODELS INDICATING A FAST RECURVE SCENARIO FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND TAU 48 WHEREAS THE SLOW SCENARIO SOLUTIONS FORECAST A WEAKER, NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHICH HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE STR ALLOWING TC 08S TO CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE COAST. THE LATER PHILOSOPHY IS MORE IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT RECURVATURE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST RANGE. THIS FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE ECWMF /UKMET /AVN SOLUTIONS AND DEPARTS FROM CONSENSUS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//NNNN

- Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)